Forecasting Methodologies

Glossary of digital metric forecasting methodologies

Metric	Methodology
MAU	Take growth rate of previous month YoY, then multiply by nominal amount of same month in the PY. For example, if forecasting February 2024, take growth rate between Jan 2024 vs Jan 2023, and apply to nominal amount in Feb 2023. Make any necessary adjustments if there are special cases in either PY or CY.
Known Diner Sales	Same as above.
Known Diner Transactions	Same as above.
Known Diner Count	Same as above.
MO&P Sales	Same as above.
Delivery Sales	Same as above.
Kiosk Sales	Same as above.
Scan & Pay Sales	Same as above.
Catering Sales	Would be same as above if not fore lack of historical data. Current methodology ties goals from Catering Execution Team. While holding catering cheque constant at current level; increasing catering restaurant count by 25 per month and increasing orders per restaurant by 1 per month (only for 2024).
App Rating	Take organic growth rate for each star rating (1-5) by looking at weeks where nothing unusual was running. Add this to app rating totals each week. Then take growth rate for each star rating for weeks where we run prompting, and note the amount of guests we prompted in those weeks. Add this total to each week that we’re planning on prompting in the future, but multiply by the amount of guests that we’re planning on prompting.
Points	Take Known-Diner-Sales forecast and multiply by 10 to get base points forecast. TBD on bonus points.