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Isolate CRM incremental impact on total sales from loyalty incrementality by relying on the control group methodology |
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Calculate CRM Incrementality, isolate this impact from Loyalty, understand specific Campaign & Journeys performances & drivers |
Which analysis can we run?
CRM Control Group Pre-Post: this proves the overall value of CRM (how do we impact same guests’ sales if we send communication vs if we don’t)
CRM Behavior Trend: for the test group, affected by CRM communication, we should be looking at their average frequency and check on a monthly basis, to ensure that we are maintaining & sustaining the growth
Specific Ad Hoc Campaign & Journeys Incrementality: on a single campaign and journey level, we will use the delta between test group conversion & control group conversion to understand the incrementality. This is helpful to assess the performances of a specific campaign, or incentive. Conversion is defined as loyalty online and/or in-store transactions in the next 5 days
Overall Journeys & Ad Hoc incrementality: we will take the average of the conversion delta between control & test group for all the ad hoc campaigns, as well as for the full journeys.
1. CRM Control Group Pre-Post:
Through this methodology, we want to measure the impact of Loyalty & CRM over total sales. On top of that, we want to isolate the impact of CRM from the one of loyalty. This proves the overall value of CRM (how do we impact same guests’ sales if we send communication vs if we don’t)
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Methodology
Create 2 control groups:
Control group for opted in people, to measure CRM incrementality over total sales
Control group at campaign level, to assess efficacy of individual campaign & incentives and optimize the CRM strategy
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Monetary value = frequency x check
2. CRM Behavior Trend
We want to monitor the evolution, for both check & frequency, of our test group to ensure that, through activations, we are sustaining growth month over month
Methodology
Check test group frequency, and check, on a monthly - weekly basis
Example: https://analytics.amplitude.com/burgerkinguk/notebook/qk83d5g/breadcrumbs/chart/wxgl7wc/edit/2gs1j4j
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3. Specific Ad Hoc Campaign & Journeys Incrementality:
We want to understand the impact of specific journeys or initiatives on overall conversion & user engagement. This can help us identify where we should allocate our resources and which are the initiatives that drive sales within the overall CRM strategy
Methodology
Each campaign has a control group. Note: The control group for journeys is 10%, the control group for ad-hoc campaigns is 5% (as they have a broader audience reach). The control group does not receive any communication from that specific ad hoc campaigns or journey.
Therefore, we can compare the average conversion rate (online or in-store loyalty transaction) in the next 5 days for the 2 groups. The delta between test & control is the incremental sales
CRM Campaign or Journey Incrementality:
% incremental conversion = % conversion rate test group - % conversion rate control group
On top of that, we should also monitor the average check of test group vs control group to understand the $ value of the campaign.
Incremental value:
$ value = (% incremental conversion)*($ average check test group - $ average check control group)